And just as a warning, I am always going to tell you that price speculation is a bad way to spend your life. Then the mining ist just looking up data in this table. I also remember that bubble..sure a lot of things moved to the internet but it had to crash..hard first. Episode 497: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - 2 by Mr. Money Mustache. Vijay, Max Your Freedom January 2, 2018, 5:44 pm. Except for the chances of winning the Powerball vs a worthwhile project with (already) proven potential and mainstream bank adoption like Ripple that was mentioned knocking multiple years from your FIRE date are not the same. Feel free to throw in some early questions. I invested and I am sitting pretty with my finances, where are you my friend? Bro, we get ityou want to wipe your butt with germ-infested cash. However, in 2004 when Facebook was being launched it was looked at as a funny little friend site. It will NEVER happen. theirlong-term viability, you have completely missed the bigger picture. Research further. Do we really want a place where youre either an Amazonian or Walmartian? Is Bitcoin eventually going to replace the physical green back dollars and coins in our pockets? This is not going to happen. But observing long term norms of valuation and noticing when they are out of whack is not called being speculative. Why? Heck no. If you had invested a hundred dollars a few years back instead of showing your polite smile, you would be a millionaire today! But there are interesting aspects to the technology and what it could develop into. Because of this, newspapers start reporting on prices daily, triggering so many tales of instant riches that you notice even your barber and your massage therapist are offering tips on how to invest in this new asset class. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, The Wealthy Accountant Before stating something, do your research of what is a Ponzi and what is a Pyramid Scheme and whether Bitcoin fits that or not? But consider some things that will live up the hype.. like improved immunotherapies for cancer or Crisprs ability to cheaply edit DNA line by line. ), Im in the same boat. The security of the Bitcoin blockchain. But again, that value is likely to be closer to $1/bulb than $10,000/bulb. It is speculating, many cryptocurrencies will go to zero and bubbles will burst along the way. Cryptos may be the money of the future, but there is nothing sane about its rise this past year. Even if Mining gets centralised, Bitcoins future cannot be dictated to by them! And to your last point Lightning network will be cheaper? I agree w jon. It also could be a bubble, but the crypto billionaires (the few or the hundreds who end up winning) will still need to buy their Doritos and Gameboys and lambos and helicopters, and Ill own shares in those companies no matter which currency is used. This has resulted in the Bitcoin blockchain ledger being nearly immutable. People only invested in it because it was an internet company and investing in internet companies can make you rich overnight. Check your funds. Stocks and bonds and real estate can all enter into bubbles. Alright then, do you have all your money invested in cryptocurrencies? I doubt you really believe this is going to overthrow all of our current financial system. TO_Ont When the internet / electric / grid is down, I cant pay him via my iphone and at the moment, the kid wants cash. MentalArson MMM has clearly thought about this more than most, however I think people would need to read more than this post to completely dismiss that a current crypto will have long term value. LennStar Bubbles or Tulip Mania as you put it dont do what bitcoin has done since its inception in 2009. There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. MMM, Internet has pretty much destroyed every industry it has pitted against. Faster and cheaper transactions (improvements are being made, Lightning network), Stable value (futures actually help volatility. I even read about these things for fun, with Simon Singhs The Code Book and the Neil Stephenson novel Cryptonomicon being particularly fun shortcuts to pick up some of the workings and the context of cryptography. But coincidentally, after I got my computer engineering degree I ended up specializing in security and encryption technologies for most of my career. Governments have no choice here. Its like Winston Churchill said: Gold is the silliest, most irrational thing you could ever use as money. Transaction fees on the DASH network are effectively 0. You are as usual missing the point and are behind trivia! How else should people behave? Any efficiency brought to commerce through blockchain technology are very likely to show up as increased dividends from index funds. The shovel sellers are the real winners here. Yep, really fluid and efficient system that takes 3 days and $20 to record a single transaction, I remember about 20 years ago the starry-eyed optimists predicting the end of brick and mortar banks within a decade or two. that would be a PE ratio of 1. You respond with an implied personal insult. It isnt enough to live off of, but its definitely nice to have a net $500 or so in my pocket at the end of each month. Ask me Anything! When my daughter asked what you could do with brick dust, the kids looked at her like she was an idiot and said, Well, buy more brick dust, of course.. Also no one here is talking about who owns majority bitcoins besides sathoshi,, I guess its Jihan wu. The bubble crashed and the internet didnt die. Think about how tomorrows generation will use far a more advanced blockchain tech to interact with far more advanced internet and general tech to create things that we cant even conceive of yet, let alone why they would have value. In a sense one could swap bitcoin to USD and the article still stands. Wow, you really have no idea how hydroelectric power works. MMM, you cannot call Bitcoin Stupid and then go tangentially into an Utopian discourse. Not saying thats why he wrote the article, but just that there are certain advantages to being an Internet Celebrity, one of which is that everything you write turns to gold, er, uh, bitcoin, er, uh, whatever. January 11, 2018, 4:23 am. That means over the next 2 years, the Shiller P/E will be rolling out some of the terrible earnings numbers from the global financial crisis. Please dont take the Proof of Work Blockchain like Bitcoins as the Blockchain. I dont know if stock prices will go down. Do you practice illegal tax evasion as your primary wealth strategy? Marketed to unsophisticated investors as a get-rich-quick scheme. College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. Trust yes. Id much rather invest in shares of Ripple Inc than in XRP. We have been in an expansion (the weakest one in US history) for almost 9 years. Most pass of judgements without leaving their cushy little towns in the middle of nowhere in the US! Anyway, what would he dump it for? In a practical sense, this . https://twitter.com/SunnyStartups/status/946711941250273280/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcointelegraph.com%2Fnews%2Findia-falsely-condemns-bitcoin-as-ponzi-scheme-flawed-logic, A man is not a financial plan I believe the current Cryptocurrency investment mania is a huge waste of human energy, and our rate of waste has been growing exponentially. Mr. Money Mustache talks about his divorce. Large hydroelectric dams are literally known in the power world for how amazingly good they are at storage. Bigger bulb, vs smaller, vs healthy, vs rotted. But I think you meant to write apologize on behalf of half of humanity. The other half of humanity has no internet access at all (internet access just eclipsed 50% of the worlds population this past year), and thus they should not bear any responsibility for the cryptocurrency craze. (which is more Mustachian..), Michelle, Mr Buffetts advice is clearly correct I mean, its Warren Buffett were talking about. This might be normal for an era such as this, where the growth is coming from real tech companies instead of widget makers. US is just one country in this big bad world, and not vice versa! That shit is gonna go way way up to 50k! I was kinda hoping he'd mention if his frugality was a factor or not. People then go on to say, If theres even a ONE PERCENT CHANCE that this happens, Bitcoins are severely undervalued and they should really be worth, like, at least a quadrillion dollars each!!. The question is if one is worth $15k? But it is a valuation technique that goes back practically as long as there have been stock markets.). Vivek Prasannan There you go. Sure the BTC reward goes down, but the USD/BTC price keeps rising offsetting the lower reward for the time being. Discussion with friend from nVidia is irrelevant to bitcoin mining. January 3, 2018, 7:32 am. The reason that people have never owned their own money as you inelegantly put it, is because there is no full faith and credit under this model. Its not as simple as you make it personally. (like ATMs were supposed to replace Tellers years ago *eye roll*) And Bitcoin is replacing the banking system? Because it is. That's right -- it really does not matter (to me) why they split up. Care to mention how deep you are into it? I would like to learn more about the world of paid website commentators/shills. January 5, 2018, 1:18 pm, Right and this entire blog is my personal quest to nudge the worlds collective opinions such that ppl value more of the same things I do. We will see you on the other side of the crash. Just Keep Calm, and Keep Investing Despite all of this hype and all the froth in stock prices, a true investor's plan can remain stable through the seasons. It grew to $240k. Besides, how do you get BTC in the first place? I have been hearing Bitcoin is a scam and a bubble since the time it was 200 bucks! January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm. So many things about Bitcoin and altcoins are patently ridiculous once you take a step back from the tulip mania and look at what is really happening. Only the most weak and fearful people will allow themselves to be stolen from for the sake of mythical national security that comes from trillions of dollars of military spending. Absolutely! For a shortcut to understanding good investing, you can also simply look up Warren Buffets thinking on almost any topic hes careful enough about offering opinions that by the time he makes a statement on something, you can be pretty sure it will be among the best answers out there. Keep plenty for yourself. I made 400% and pulled them out. So, how is Bitcoin better or different? All points noted. January 3, 2018, 8:06 am. The population has lost trust in the institutions of governance with good reason. MissSaraBee After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustachesfingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supplyso lets use them as the new world currency! People went off on many rants back when a single tulip bulb could have the same value as a ocean going ship, just as back then we had many people who couldnt stop talking about how great tulip bulbs are and why we should all be buying them. Videos about Personal Finance, Early Retirement, and Other Stuff. Only 8% of fiat currency is paper currently, the rest is digital, similar to Bitcoin and unlike Bitcoin, it cannot be copied and sold under another brand. Try doing one thing the Banks dont want you to do, or the regimes in half the worlds countries dont want you to do, and you will know how financially ruined you will be! It is subject to crazes and manias. You can give up that wet dream right now. Bitcoins arent duplicable, your fingernails could be replaced by other fingernails and nobody would notice unless they do a mass spectrometry. Personally i feel that the USD is rapidly approaching hyperinflation. Profit! The act of speculating on an asset is what drives it to its proper price; they are critical players in the process of price discovery. You are correct to note that Since the late 1990s when Shiller started promoting the CAPE ratio stocks have regularly been in bubble territory. The comment about 1999 investors didnt receive their investment back from stocks until this year well, for the rest of us that dont invest 100% of our money in the stock market in one instance AND we reinvest dividends, this type of situation is almost impossible. Im just curious what your motivations are for all your comments. As platforms. But with 6-7 big mining players who dictate which fork of bitcoin to mine, the value of BTC or BCC or Segwit or whatever else comes, I have no faith in the value of BTC. I believe this is currently the second longest expansion in US history. Hardware. Its diversification. Im a younger kid so I definitely only heard of Betamax. That was called new economy. Hell isnt that why we are here in the first place? I keep thinking of that movie where the actor says Explain it to me like Im a 2 year old.. Glad to see some sense being written to the red necks who seem to inhabit this blog! The issue with the .com bubble was internet companies were given a high valuation with no demonstration that they were profitable or even provided a service/product. Bitmains S9 efficiency is at ~0.1 J/GHs. I dislike all this vitriol given to speculators when they are fully valuable members of an economic system. Videos of Andreas Antonopoulos on Bitcoins in Youtube. They may settle to much less, or get close to zero, or they may grow more, no one can really predict this. Of course there is value in regulations, too. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/19/arts/design/has-the-art-market-become-an-unwitting-partner-in-crime.html. In the mean time, Ill keep selling the bitcoins that I purchased for $30 each at $15k a pop. I think that the point being missed in all of this is NOT that people want to evade taxes, but that they are being screwed backwards & forwards by the banks (& the tax evaders-in-chief that run them). If youre one of these credible people, please do so in the comments or in a blog post on Medium that we can all read. Why would the author call this act stupid? Individuals getting rich off speculation doesnt mean its not speculation. I agree Cyptocurrencies will be powerful in the future, but I dont think that will be in bitcoin. Besides, theres value in bitcoin, like with gold or a comic book, or any other item people assign a value to. The response was amazing and, unfortunately, there were simply to many to include them all. A real, usable currency CANNOT have such huge fluctuations. But if that is the case, then it is far less irrational than are dollar bills, especially over long periods of time. You gotta have it. Closer to 85 years than 40. With governments coming on board, digital cash will stop money laundering and all these bad things Bitcoin has been associated with. LennStar Think about how many leaps needed to be made for someone in 1990 to believe such a thing was possible. 7 Replies 594 Views February 10, 2023, 11:49:28 AM by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds. I dont mind people investing in Bitcoin because its not my money. Good thing I dont invest in it! Id like to address each. Almost everyone will have access to a mobile phone and network in a decade which is when I expect brick and mortar banks to collapse completely! The fees are incredible. It is, above all else, pure wealth, other substances, and activities may be valued in gold bullion. Consensus destroyed. I know a lot of people in the DOTCOM bubble in the 2000s that were too focused on maximizing profits and lost most of their wealth on paper after the tech crash. Ive been experiencing the Bitcoin frenzy from the sidelines, but I recently went all in, buying up 20 physical commemorative Bitcoins on eBay. Not going to do this with you. One book that I found very useful in understanding the greed-fear cycle (and Central Banking and the Federal Reserve system to boot) is the 2001 classic Towards Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith. The thing that stopped me is that shorting it is a *pain in the ass*. Let me know when you find a buyer for your $70k fingernail clippings. I couldnt find anything indicating countries are using bitcoin as a reserve currency. I am so happy to see this article! =. do not feed into this crap that there is no banking infrastructure. You made an unsupported claim. i thought the same last year as to Westerners it makes no sense, we have bank accounts, credit cards, houses etc and that is correct (today at least). I buy bitcoin with the expectation that bitcoin will solve the problems it currently faces and become more widely accepted thus increasing demand driving up the price. It is cool. Do you know the state of US debt recently? ie beauty counter for nerds. This is a known bug in our operating system, and we have designed some parts of our society to protect us against it. So, all of the normal, previous ways of saving have been destroyed & the banks/corrupt bankers get bailed out, over & over & the regular people are sick of it. Well then Biglaw Investor, youd better stop using websites or stop supporting any company that does big data research, because thats consuming considerably more electricity and its not fundamentally vital to us existing. As should everyone. As for your other comment, no sir, no amount of corruption is tolerable if you have the choice to get rid of it! You invested in GBTC? For a long answer you need to understand the technicalities of it which I am not going to educate you on! January 10, 2018, 11:01 am. Lets get this straight: in order for Bitcoin to be a real currency, it needs several things: Bitcoin has none of these things, and even safely storing it is difficult (see Mt. Some companies are already testing it in main net as well! . Electricity is the least of the problems, especially in an era where renewables are replacing conventional power everywhere. Speculation is great. I could definitely sell these for more later. Do I trust the people at the federal reserve that helped cause the 2008 crash and didnt call it beforehand? Sounds like a bubble to me. The big players in China use hydroelectric power. Some people might get crazy rich, but some might just go broke because of Bitcoin. It needs to expand with the supply of goods and services in the world, otherwise we end up with deflation and hoarding. A digital advertising ecosystem to fund it all. For this article, I have set the bar much lower to show you the religious conviction that crypto speculators have. Chris Urbaniak Hmmm..why not pay in bitcoins if it is so superior? However, there are a couple things you are wrong about here, and are worth commenting on. Id love to know what your background is. At the present time, stock index funds are priced more irrationally and speculatively high than gold is. SMH. It has reached the point that a big percentage of stories in the financial news and questions in Mr. Money Mustaches email inbox are about whether or not we should all invest in BitCoin. Cryptocurrencies are extremely risky. January 5, 2018, 8:26 am. The poorest in Sub-Saharan Africa earns the same money that you sitting in Manhattan, NY do. There is no reliable way to track or trace paper. Spend $40,000 a year x 25 = $1,000,000 to be FI/spend 4% of $1,000,000 = $40,000 to spend each year. Jeremy Collins Episode 496: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - Part 1 by Mr. Money Mustache. Many African countries have central banks. Im always reminded of VHS versus beta max but on a few thousand options scale (rather then two) and a higher risk if you choose wrong (at current prices). Anyway, if your argument were correctwhich it partially isthen you of all people should be against fiat money systems like the US dollar in its current form. I can 100 percent guarantee you that my mom and pop will still be using fiat paper, and so will I, and so will the worlds governments. So basically you dont understand any of this, therefore it must be a scam. Great post. The reason internet destroys industries (?? Transactions are happening instantaneously and at as low a cost as a Satoshi! For newer cryptocurrencies, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. And regarding Bitcoin as currency, it is already not usable as that TODAY. You all and Mr. Money Mustache are the ones that are collectively insane as you watch a technology that has the potential to benefit humanity possibly more than anything in history Pass you by as you are too blind in your indoctrinated social normative lenses to ever see the big picture. Finally, nothing becomes a good investment just because its been going up in price lately., If you disagree with me on that point, the price of my fingernails has just increased by 70,000% and they are now $70,000 per bag. January 2, 2018, 6:09 pm. Its well written and pretty obviously by a real software and math person. Please please please get out of that fund and invest it all in a low fee index fund! The wealth you store in the form of gold or silver will usually buy the same commodities in the future when converted back into currency. I dont think attacking how Bitcoin is being used is a good argument because of this. Dit is je geld nu waard als je een jaar geleden Bitcoin, goud of andere assets kocht. I dont think Bitcoin will be very snuggly. You should have just invested in winning lottery tickets instead of bitcoin, they have had a much much higher rate of return. Im thrilled to see the godfather speak on this. Scott Nicholson Not just stupid, insane. So, I use bitcoin to buy stuff with the gift cards from these people. Not the only reason, but if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. The problems it solves for the billions of people in the second and third world shouldnt be so casually dismissed though. We will have to see if that new blockchain style will win out. . January 4, 2018, 10:38 am. Warren Buffet says dont invest in what you dont understand, and I dont understand Bitcoin. If youre one of these credible people, please do so in the comments or in a blog post on Medium that we can all read. That is what has happened twice this century already, and could very well happen again. So in order to have immutability, we need decentralization. To call gold a non-productive asset misses the point entirely. Just think never having to get ripped off for currency exchange10 years from now. Speculating on bitcoin for this reason only really works so long as there is some new greater fool who joins in on the speculation after you have bought. Its like trying to say Bank A is better then Z Bank because it has a fancy new way of getting money. As a result, the benefits of human progress are not reflected in our moneys purchasing power. Im only a mediocre computer scientist. Well said! As of now, BTC has none of those characteristics. It is the main currency by which you can obtain other cryptocurrencies. On top of that, wages are not keeping up with the rising costs of living. Something only has value if ppl place a value on it. Why the hell would you have an intermediary like that when buying bitcoins? Nothing wrong with speculation, as long as you are doing so responsibly and understand the risks. I agree that Bitcoin isnt an investment. The rise in bitcoin represents people waking up to one delusion (false paper valuations) and unfortunately accepting another delusionthat digits are more valuable and trustworthy than paper. After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustache's fingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supply so let's use them as the new world currency! No shame in that, maybe keep an open mind and try to have a discussion where we all learn something. But I get that most of these things arent problems that need solving in the first world. their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed.. Now, when that happens, I am ready either way. Because I still cant pay for groceries in my town without swiping a card or handing over some US dollars. :), https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/941500121564332032, farmecologist Again, only in nominal terms. Let them hold on to their fiat currency if they like to. One book that I found very useful in understanding the greed-fear cycle (and Central Banking and the Federal Reserve system to boot) is the 2001 classic Towards Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith. A lot of jobs today exists only to oversee things. Slaves to banks and few elites? This is yet another extreme example. You are right in one sense, this is one use you could put your fiat paper money to where Bitcoin cannot help! Take the decentralization, the trustlessness, the miners or the currency out and you throw the immutability out. An investment then would not be considered wasteful now. January 2, 2018, 6:23 pm. January 3, 2018, 7:20 am. They could also plateau until earnings catchup with prices. Also, not all crypto currencies use PoW to mine / verify transactions. The Ramsey Show is a podcast by Dave Ramsey, a financial guru and bestselling author. $100 per post is pretty motivating. Gold is not necessarily a speculation. BTC wont be the winner but with over 1300 coins the winner has likely been created. This is exactly what I was thinking. Kevin S Coleman Amazing. Bitcoin finally surpassed $40K and topped at $41,940 on Jan 8. I am not a millionaire either or have any heavy investments in any of this and I am not certainly looking to grow my investments by commenting on a blog, of all places! I cant help but feel that a big part of the reason for Bitcoins continued rise is that theres no safe, practical way for us Bitcoin-skeptics to actually take a short position on it. For a shortcut to understanding good investing, you can also simply look up Warren Buffets thinking on almost any topic hes careful enough about offering opinions that by the time he makes a statement on something, you can be pretty sure it will be among the best answers out there. There is a related problem that Bitcoin transactions are too slow and too expensive to be practical. The bitcoin price isnt rising because people are buying the coins to conduct real business. It has a track record though ill give you that. Its a complete rip off. Blockchain may be the future, but that doesnt mean any of the current currencies will be worth anything. But its likely just down the toilet. The need for a cryptocurrency is very real. Couldnt have said it any better myself. People get excited about Bitcoin when the price goes up, but thats because they like making money not because the underlying object has any actual value or usefulness. Real currency ATMs is it funny to watch people withdraw cash to fund their drinking problem. Therefor, John will go on believing strangers on YouTube over me so I will be there to pick up the pieces when the house of cards crumbles. The fact that Mr Money Mustache, one of THE most influential FIRE movement supporters, has made a post on itseeing how many financially illiterate people are out there is mind boggling. 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