U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, March 5, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nov. 27, 2020, ", Health Affairs, June 16 2020, "Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US", Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, Dec. 3, 2020, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Feb. 12, ", CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers., Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing On-Premises Restaurant Dining with County-Level COVID-19 Case and Death Growth Rates United States, March 1December 31, 2020, Trends in County-Level COVID-19 Incidence in Counties With and Without a Mask Mandate Kansas, June 1August 23, 2020, Governor Laura Kelly Announces Masks Must be Worn Statewide, Differences in rapid increases in county-level COVID-19 incidence by implementation of statewide closures and mask mandates United States, June 1September 30, 2020, Germany to oblige mandatory face masks from Monday, Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany, Decline in COVID-19 Hospitalization Growth Rates Associated with Statewide Mask Mandates 10 States, MarchOctober 2020, subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Discover a faster, simpler path to publishing in a high-quality journal. However, the COVID-19 rates continued to be higher in places with low mask adherence. here. e0249891. While mandates required shoppers to don masks before entering supermarkets, for example, the risk of transmission in such settings is low, given the amount of time customers usually spend in them, the size of the air space, and typically wide distances between patrons. A recent study shows that states with high levels of mask-wearing reported fewer COVID-19 cases last summer. Mandating masks gave the illusion of doing something against the virus. After briefly ramping up restrictions closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools in March, when most other states did, Gov. Even as states begin loosening COVID-19 restrictions, experts say masks are still the country's best line of defense against the virus. We calculated the average mask use percentage by month for AprilSeptember, 2020. As you can see from the lines' similar trajectories, the mask mandates hardly controlled the virus. The. "At first blush," Jha says, it "looks like their different COVID strategies did not end up mattering much." They looked at data from April to October 2020. We were not able to measure statistical interactions between mask policy and adherence due to instability arising from small numbers. Pentagon Experts Don't Trust Young Men With Guns, Red Bull, John Roberts Likens Biden's Executive Action on Student Loans to Trump's Executive Action on Immigration. Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America, Roles Here's what it could mean for all of us. The requirement is expected to be lifted on March 1. In the first 20 days after implementingmask mandates, new cases slowed by 0.5 percentage points. All reviews and studies included in this document report on data collected in a time period prior If Florida's case numbers understate the true number of infections more than California's do, that could partially explain the difference in COVID-19 deaths per capita. For each month, the distributions of mask adherence across all 50 states and D.C. were categorized into quartiles, meaning the cut-off values for each quartile may be different from one month to another. The strongest association was for mask adherence in September; for every 1% increase in average adherence, the odds of a high COVID-19 case rate decreased by 26%. The CDC's report is the latestin a growing body of evidence establishing mask mandates as an effective strategy in curbing the virus. So theres a need to make decisions and be decisive, Dr. El-Sadr said. California's state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic is finally over, ending on Tuesday after nearly three years in place. But with variants of concern circulating around the world, masking remains importanteven as the public battles mask fatigue. But in each state, as Miller shows, infection rates remained lower in the counties that did not mandate masks. North Dakota, for example, made few efforts to contain the virus. 2021;325(10):998-999. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.1505. JAMA. John Tierney is a contributing editor of City Journal and coauthor of The Power of Bad: How the Negativity Effect Rules Us and How We Can Rule It. Note: Measurements of government response come from the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Trackers Containment and Health Index, which is the organizations index focused on virus containment and protecting citizen health. It compares Germany with Sweden, the medias Covid villain for refusing to lock down or mandate masks. When the initial spring wave in 2020 subsided, public officials and journalists claimed that the mandates had worked, and they kept up the pretense even when Covid surged again later that year despite the continuing mandates. New infections have stayed among the lowest in the country, adjusted for population though cases now are rising in New York as they are everywhere. Public health policy-making requires navigating the balance of public good and individual rights [10]. New Zealand recently lifted all restrictions following 10 days with no new cases. "Our results suggest that mask-wearing is strongly affected by factors other than mandates. Data on population distributions from the COVID-19 US State Policy Database [13] came from the US Census. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic. Odds ratios indicating protection against high COVID-19 rates remained for all months and policy subgroups, ranging from 0.82 to 0.93 for states with any policy and from 0.60 to 0.95 for states with no policy. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. The index does not evaluate the effectiveness of individual policies. The estimated absolute change in cumulative case rate associated with lifting the mask mandate, remains 28.1 (30.6%) 21 days after lifting the mask mandate. The three COVID-19 vaccines authorized by the FDA are also helping slow COVID-19 rates, allowing for the easing of restrictions. Eleven states had no stay-at-home order, 15 had no mask policy, and four states had low adherence throughout this six-month period. 2.18.2022 4:30 PM. Instead, it analyzed the connection between mask mandate policies and the rate of new county-level coronavirus cases and deaths. A couple weeks into those lockdowns, countries with new restrictions may be seeing results: The rate of new daily cases has begun to level off or drop in France, Spain, Germany and Italy, though it continues to rise in the United Kingdom. In contrast, average adherence was 68% in the 15 states with lower COVID-19 rates in October and any mask policy in September. Air travel is finally poised to recover its pre-Covid passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry. Parents have pushed for the mask mandate to be lifted for a number of reasons. We calculated the number of new cases in each month, for each state and D.C. Rates were the number of new cases divided by the population in 2019. Indeed, issuing such a policy is not the same as successfully implementing it. Instead of carefully analyzing the effects of masks, the CDC repeatedly tried to justify them by misrepresenting short-term trends and hyping badly flawed research, like studies in Arizona and Kansas purporting to show that infections had been dramatically reduced by the mask mandates imposed in some counties. When mask adherence dropped in September, COVID-19 cases increased in October. Several other states have implemented or tightened. I think timing really matters for the decisions.. For now, relaxing some mask guidelines while staying vigilant is the government's compromise. Fully vaccinated people should continue following CDC guidelines, including wearing their masks in crowded areas and when around unvaccinated people. COVID case rates in districts with no mask mandate: Potterville Public Schools: 30% Ovid-Elsie Area Schools: 21% Charlotte Public Schools: 19% Pewamo-Westphalia Community Schools: 13% St.. Its been largely delegated to a subnational level, to the states, for example, and municipalities to figure it out themselves.. Germanys stringent policies have made it a consistent media darling. Data Availability: Data are available in the paper and its Supporting Information file. Policy data on physical distancing were dichotomized as any versus no stay-at-home order during the April 1 to October 31, 2020 interval. When the state faced a surge of cases over the summer, the governor closed bars and placed limits on restaurant capacity. | Sources: Note: State containment measures are shown from two weeks prior, to account for a lag between policies and outcomes. Since July 27, 2020, individuals had been required to wear a mask or face covering in the state when visiting public indoor spaces and when unable to maintain a 6-foot distance from. And in the Germancity of Jena, first in the country to implement public mask wearing last April, masks led to a 75% decrease in new COVID-19 cases in little under three weeks, one December study found. Heres How Doctors With Kids Are Navigating the New Mask Guidance. Thank you, {{form.email}}, for signing up. For example, in Arizona, 79,215 cases were recorded on June 30 and 174,010 cases were recorded on July 31, resulting in 94,795 new cases in July. Yes Fourteen of the 15 states with no mask wearing policy for the general public for the entire four month period (June through September) reported a high COVID-19 rate. For mask policy and adherence in September in relation to high COVID-19 rates in October, collinearity caused the odds ratio to flip. Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work. Former Arizona AG Found No Evidence of 2020 Election Fraud. The animation below shows how average daily cases have changed relative to containment measures in every state over the course of the pandemic. Our study accounted for temporality by staggering COVID-19 outcome data after adherence measures. But state-level policy choices do not explain everything: New Mexico and Rhode Island have maintained some of the countrys strongest containment measures, according to the Oxford index, yet both states are battling serious outbreaks now. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. Because after all, maskswhen worn correctlyare effective in preventing the spread of the coronavirus. Costs vs. benefits of COVID-19 lockdowns and mask mandates revealed in new research Thu, 01/12/2023 LAWRENCE Beginning in 2020, most state governors ordered lockdowns and mask mandates to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined the impact of state-based mask wearing policy and adherence on COVID-19 case rates during the summer and early fall of 2020 in order to quantify this effect. Because stay-at-home order, mask wearing policy, mask adherence, and COVID-19 rates can vary from month to month, we listed those states with consistent classifications across the period April through September (or May through October for COVID-19 rates). This pattern of magical thinking persisted throughout the pandemic, as Miller demonstrates in dozens of graphs contrasting conventional wisdom with cruel reality. Thats a huge swing, Werler says. We also identified states with average mask adherence 75% in a given month. The Department of Homeland Security Turns 20. Loosening COVID-19 restrictions, experts say masks are still the country 's best line defense... Up mattering much. effective strategy in curbing the virus to slow down the.! 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